AGP Executive Report

Agriculture: Ruto launched cocoa as a scheduled cash crop in Kitale, with KALRO-backed seedlings planned for farmers in suitable areas. Water Infrastructure: The Sh45bn Mwache Dam is over 90% complete and is designed to supply 186,000 cubic metres of water daily to Mombasa and Kwale, including for industry. Transport: The government approved three road corridors covering more than 900km to link farming areas, fishing communities and trading centres with markets. Mining Safety: One miner died and two were trapped after gold mine workings collapsed in Turkana, renewing concerns over safety in artisanal mining. Insurance Technology: Kenya Re has brought 90 students from 30 universities into a hackathon to develop AI tools for flood-risk assessment. Dairy: Ruto’s proposal to introduce water buffalo farming has prompted debate over whether the alternative could help ease milk shortages and high prices.

Energy: Cabinet’s Sh2.47 trillion plan targets 5.1 million new electricity connections by 2030, alongside a Sh1.1 billion electric-cooking programme for four counties. Fuel Retail: Independent dealers are asking KRA to pause eTIMS enforcement, saying dispenser upgrades can cost up to Sh800,000 and Sh1 million fines could threaten businesses and more than 20,000 jobs. Agriculture: Ruto wants officials to assess buffalo and improved camel breeds to diversify milk supply as drought and feed costs strain dairy production. KTDA says September tea payments and bonuses are in farmers’ accounts, available from Monday. Coffee: The government has directed Sh100 million for a Nairobi Coffee Exchange lab to support specialty-coffee sales and micro-lot auctions. Transport: Kenya Railways says the Kisumu-Malaba SGR extension is targeted for completion by June 2027, with Sh25 billion set aside for land compensation. Construction: Cabinet-backed legislation proposes fines of up to Sh2 million or two years in prison for false registration or licensing of building professionals.

Rail and Logistics: The government has set aside Sh25 billion to compensate landowners along the SGR extension towards Kisumu and Malaba. Kenya Railways says construction is advancing, with completion targeted for June 2027. Lamu Port also handled calls from 11 vessels in eight days, including major global shipping lines. Energy Costs: Fuel price caps remain frozen through October 14, giving businesses short-term certainty as import costs shift. Agriculture and Food: Kenya’s coffee farmers earned US$320.3 million in 2025/26, while Nairobi’s planned markets aim to cut food losses through better storage, processing and distribution. Manufacturing: Industry groups have challenged in court a 433% increase in the industrial sugar tax. Finance and Technology: Airtel Money shares slipped below their IPO price in London, while Kenya Re is exploring AI tools to improve flood-risk assessments for insurers.

Agriculture: Nairobi’s Dishi Na County school kitchens buy 37 tonnes of food each day, creating steady demand for farmers. The government is also exploring purchases of rice stocks in the Lake Basin ahead of El Niño rains, while Ruto says the digital farmer register has helped curb fertiliser cartels. Value Addition: Ruto has directed Sh100 million for a quality-testing lab at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange to support specialty coffee sales. He also wants to curb raw-hide smuggling and grow local leather processing. Kenya’s coffee farmers earned US$320.3 million in 2025/26. Sugar: About Sh4 billion in sugar levy funds remain unused amid a dispute over the Kenya Sugar Board. Manufacturers are separately challenging the rise in industrial sugar excise duty from Sh7.50 to Sh40 per kilogram. Energy and Infrastructure: Power outages now average three hours and 14 minutes, up 26% in a year. Work has begun on the Rironi–Mau Summit Highway, while Kenya Railways has set June 2027 as the SGR completion target.

Economic Outlook: The MPC raised its 2026 growth forecast to 5%, citing stronger industry and services activity, infrastructure spending and improved credit growth, while warning of risks from global tensions and El Niño. Manufacturing: IFC plans a $10 million loan to Mombasa-based Revital Healthcare for new cold-chain, kitting and logistics capacity; manufacturers are also challenging a proposed 433% industrial sugar-tax increase in court. Food Supply: East Africa Foods raised $26 million in equity as part of a roughly $40 million funding round to expand the infrastructure linking smallholder farmers with urban markets. Agriculture: Calls to suspend the tea export levy and clarify ownership of the Nairobi Coffee Exchange have renewed scrutiny of costs and farmer representation. Infrastructure: Kindiki inspected an Sh861 million road project in Murang’a and threatened action over a stalled Sh114 million market contract.

Construction: Kenya’s Sh3.38 trillion project pipeline is drawing global suppliers, with the sector rebounding 6.8% in 2025. Agriculture: Deputy President Kithure Kindiki urged farmers to adopt precision technologies such as drones to raise yields and reduce waste. Business Conditions: The World Bank lifted Kenya’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.6%, while the CBK held its benchmark rate at 8.75%; firms still face high input costs and tight cash flow. Mining: Tata Chemicals Magadi will wait for a government panel’s review of its suspended mining licence before deciding its next steps. Exports: Kenya’s fruit export earnings rose 19.8% year on year to Sh5.7 billion in June, despite slightly lower volumes. Energy and Manufacturing: The planned $16 billion Lamu refinery could process 700,000 barrels of crude daily and help lower manufacturing costs, though the project faces legal and scrutiny challenges.

Manufacturing: Kenya-based HACO Industries is entering West Africa through a Ghana deal to make and distribute Amara lotion locally, as it targets 30 African markets by 2030. Energy: Manufacturers hope the proposed Lamu refinery will reduce fuel and logistics costs, but say its value will depend on affordable energy and locally available industrial inputs. Agriculture: At a Nairobi food-security summit, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki said the farmer database has grown to 7.2 million crop farmers and three million livestock keepers, with lower input costs and higher output among reported gains. Infrastructure: Road construction has fallen 62% over four years, with 2,584km built compared with 6,813km in the previous four-year period. Small Industry: The government says only 152 of 235 developed constituency industrial centres are fully operational, held back by power, equipment and infrastructure gaps. Clean Energy: More than £2 million in UK-backed funding will support clean-power projects across eight African countries, targeting sectors including food production and small businesses.

Dangote Lamu Refinery: Aliko Dangote says the $16bn East Africa Petroleum Refinery in Lamu will be delivered in 40 months and offers 30% equity to East African countries, with a local content push for Lamu graduates and training for 1,000 youth. Energy Investment: Orb Energy secured $2m from KawiSafi Ventures to expand commercial and industrial solar across East Africa, with Nairobi as its regional hub. Carbon Markets: Kenya launched a 2026 guide to attract high-integrity carbon investments while protecting communities, ecosystems and national climate targets. Ebola Preparedness: Kenya confirmed its first Ebola case and death linked to the DRC, highlighting airport screening and surveillance gaps as contacts and flight passengers are traced. Inflation Watch: Kenya’s inflation stayed around 4.3–4.6% late 2025/early 2026 before rising to 6.8% by September, squeezing household purchasing power. Finance & Inclusion: Sasra data shows women’s share of CEO roles in regulated Saccos rose to 36.9% in 2025. Education Infrastructure: DP Kithure Kindiki inspected KMTC Kiambaa works and announced a Sh290m hostel plan plus a second-phase tuition block. Digital Payments: Binance Pay rolled out a 20% mobile top-up discount in Kenya and nine other markets, capped at 3 USDT equivalent.

Ebola Preparedness Tested: Kenya confirmed its first Ebola death after a Kenyan man arrived from DR Congo via Uganda, with 28 contacts traced and authorities urging calm as the outbreak outpaces response in the region. Dangote Refinery Scrutiny: The High Court fast-tracked a petition demanding disclosure of government involvement in the Lamu refinery, including any public funds, land, tax incentives and the state’s planned 10% stake via the National Investment Fund. Rail Electrification Push: Kenya Railways opened applications for four World Bank-backed consultancy roles for Nairobi’s KSh65bn commuter rail electrification, covering electrical systems, signalling/telecoms, rail civil works and transit-oriented development. Banknote Printing Ownership Shift: Monarch Capital bought a controlling Sh400m stake in De La Rue Kenya EPZ, leaving the National Treasury with 40% after CAK approval. Digital Connectivity Pressure: Starlink kept new customer sign-ups frozen in eight counties due to capacity limits, even as subscriptions rose to 27,616 by June 2026. Road Safety & Industry Link: Residents contained an ethanol tanker fire on the Nakuru–Eldoret highway and called for faster rescue facilities near the Rironi–Mau corridor. Women in Tech for Transport Payments: Absa and GirlCode-backed GirlCode Kenya Hackathon winners built an AI fare-collection platform aimed at improving public transport payment accountability. Agribusiness Sustainability: Kenya’s flower sector signed a partnership to tackle pesticide container waste through collection centres and extended producer responsibility compliance.

Kenya Trade Finance Boost: AfDB and Family Bank signed a $10m (Sh1.297b) trade finance facility to expand foreign-currency lending for Kenyan importers and exporters, targeting SMEs and women-led firms in manufacturing, agriculture, healthcare and renewables. Coffee Earnings: The Nairobi Coffee Exchange says coffee societies and estates earned Sh41bn in 2025/26 from 47m kg, with 770,034 bags sold and Alliance Berries leading broker sales. Energy Transition at the Last Mile: Kenya’s shift to clean power is being framed as a financing and delivery challenge—crowding in private capital and using tools like infrastructure funds and PPPs to reach communities. Solar Uptake by Industry: EPRA reports businesses added 72,800kW of solar for own use in the year to June 2026, lifting captive power to 676.6MW. Capital Markets—Dangote IPO Access: CMA approved eligible Kenyan investors to participate in Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s IPO via GDRs, with a Nairobi listing planned after Nigeria approvals. ICT Regulation for AI: CAK hosted regional ICT regulators in Nairobi to push stronger policy and legal guardrails for AI, cyber risk and digital inclusion. Weather Watch: Met expects light to moderate October short rains in 47 counties, with flash-flood risk in parts of Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River and Kilifi. Mining Spotlight—Turkana Gold: Turkana is emerging as a gold frontier, with licences and community-consent steps underway as Kenya’s gold remains largely artisanal. Insurance Ownership Reset: The Ndegwa family will buy back a 24.1% ICEA Lion stake for Sh8.5bn to regain full control, after CAK approval.

Tourism & Aviation: Kenya’s tourism is growing, with KTB citing about 2.7m international arrivals and 5.2m domestic visitors, but leaders warn infrastructure gaps still hold the sector back. Food & Climate: Food prices are rising as climate change strains supply, pushing households in Nairobi and beyond to cut meals and spending ahead of El Niño. Digital Inclusion: GSMA/PDAA data shows Kenya’s mobile internet use is uneven—cost of phones and data keeps many offline, widening the gap to the digital economy. Mining Tech: India’s CSM Technologies has gone live with Kenya’s nationwide mineral royalty management system, digitising declarations, assessments, payments and compliance. Education Labour: Government orders striking university lecturers back to work, saying CBA arrears have been fully cleared. E-commerce Shock: A Kenyan court orders Copia Kenya into liquidation after failed administration. Maritime Security: Piracy has returned in the western Indian Ocean, with hijackings since April threatening import costs for Kenya and neighbours. Governance & Investment: A World Bank diagnostic flags corruption, red tape, licensing hurdles and tax uncertainty as major brakes on private investment and jobs.

Mobile Money Rules: CBK and Treasury propose that M-Pesa and Airtel Money must report mobile cash theft and cyber breaches to the regulator, with penalties up to Sh1m or permit loss. Saccos Watch: SASRA says Kuscco losses will force provisioning of about Sh7.7bn, setting up dividend cuts for members. Farm Finance Bottlenecks: SBP flags inadequate insurance, lack of accredited warehouses, and limited finance access as key constraints to agricultural lending. El Niño Update: Kenya Meteorological Service says October–December rains have started in many counties and will spread further next week, with Turkana and Samburu among the last. Lamu Refinery Politics: As Dangote’s Lamu project faces calls for full contract disclosure and fresh scrutiny, Health CS Aden Duale defends it as a confidence boost while critics push for safeguards. Ports & Connectivity: KPA advances the Likoni ferry passenger terminal to cut congestion and modernise the busy Mombasa crossing. Trade Data: Kenya’s exports to the US overtook Uganda after AGOA restoration, with apparel and coffee leading gains. Women in Leadership: Over 300 women in Nairobi urged leadership that shapes decisions, not just “fills rooms.” Korea Business Push: K-Lifestyle showcase in Nairobi brought Korean brands to meet Kenyan importers and retailers.

Dangote Refinery Politics & Legal Pressure: Health CS Aden Duale defended President Ruto amid fresh scrutiny of the Sh2.2trn-plus Lamu refinery, while opposition figures demanded access to the deal terms and a consumer-rights group (COFEK) filed a petition over non-disclosed approvals and government stake details. Lamu Port & Shipping Scale-Up: Kenya Ports Authority flagged a new milestone as Iran-flagged MV Hamouna discharged about 5,200 TEUs at Lamu, underscoring the port’s growing role ahead of the refinery’s ramp-up. Trade & Exports: Kenya’s exports to the US jumped in the five months to July 2026 after Agoa preferential access was restored, with apparel and coffee driving gains. Electricity Demand Hotspot: EPRA data shows the Nairobi region accounted for 45% of extra electricity sold to June 2026, reflecting dense industry and middle-class consumption. SME/Insurance Push: A policy focus emerged on why SMEs should use insurance as a growth tool to manage production, logistics, and digital risks. Tourism Regulation: A Kilifi community petitioned the Senate to regulate quad-bike tourism on Mamburi-Magarini dunes over safety, environmental and access concerns. AI Skills for Schools: UNESCO and Codemao are expanding AI education across Africa using a train-the-trainer model, with Kenya among participating countries.

Lamu Refinery Push Meets Legal Pressure: Kenya’s planned Dangote East Africa refinery in Lamu is back in the spotlight after COFEK asked for details on the proposed 10% government equity stake, while a Malindi court ordered a status quo on disputed land until an Oct. 14 hearing—raising uncertainty for construction even as Dangote insists the project will stay on schedule. Energy & Industry Finance: NCBA launched its 2026 Johari Awards in Western Kenya, highlighting growing asset finance demand as firms seek equipment and vehicles via financing rather than full upfront payments. Clean Cooking Move: Kenya formally joined the Clean Cooking Alliance through the IEA platform, aiming to accelerate clean cooking access ahead of the January 2027 Africa summit in Nairobi. Agriculture Under Strain: A milk shortage hit Bomet Town as feed costs and dry weather cut supply, pushing prices up and threatening dairy livelihoods. Coffee Innovation: Stakeholders at Science Summit Nairobi 2026 urged science-led, farmer-centred approaches to revive Kenya’s coffee sector and build climate resilience. Digital & Trade Links: Korean brands showcased K-Lifestyle in Nairobi, with 30+ companies and 200+ B2B/distributor engagements—another sign of expanding consumer and electronics trade. Power Sector Alert: Kenya Power warned customers not to interact with its X customer-care account after unauthorised access. Mining Resettlement: Shanta Gold began large-scale resettlement for Ramula mining project households in Vihiga, targeting 1,200+ families ahead of mid-2027 operations.

Dangote Refinery Legal/Industrial Push: Kenya’s Lamu refinery drive got a fresh boost with Ruto breaking ground on the $2.2trn, 700,000-bpd project and announcing Ksh7.5bn for 3,000 worker houses, but construction faces disruption after a Malindi court order halts activities over ancestral land claims ahead of an Oct. 14 hearing. Energy & Power Infrastructure: KETRACO switched on a new 132kV line linking Nanyuki and Rumuruti to cut losses and improve supply for irrigation, manufacturing and hospitality, while EPRA data shows fuel sales remain tightly concentrated among a few oil marketers. Sugar Irrigation Expansion: Ruto plans a major Galana-Kulalu dam (about Ksh30bn) to expand coastal sugarcane production, alongside Bura allocations, aiming to cut reliance on imported sugar. Payments & Financial Services: Pesa joined Payments Canada, signaling deeper cross-border payments access, while CBK raised compliance costs for non-deposit-taking credit firms and Kenya Power warned customers after an unauthorised access incident on its X customer-care account. Local Governance & Delivery: Nakuru executives faced tough grilling over stalled projects and land issues, and Bungoma’s ID registration push is hampered by staff, vehicles and equipment shortages. Maritime Cooperation: India’s INS Tarkash completed a port visit and PASSEX with Kenya Navy off Mombasa, underlining growing maritime ties. Tech/Business Ecosystem: Nairobi was named among Africa’s cities to watch in Oxford Economics’ index, with strong human capital and a fast-growing “Silicon Savannah” tech and finance outlook.

Dangote Refinery Legal Pressure: COFEK has filed a second petition over Aliko Dangote’s $16bn Lamu refinery, asking Kenya’s PPP panel for details on approvals and the planned 10% state stake, including seed funding, share acquisition vehicle, and taxpayer/consumer risks—coming after land-related suits by Lamu residents. Regional Energy Diplomacy: Opinion pieces argue South Sudan’s absence from the Lamu refinery push misses a chance to reduce Juba’s oil “hostage” dependence on pipeline routes through conflict zones, while Kenya’s refinery is framed as a potential stabiliser for East Africa’s fuel security. Payments Overhaul: Kenya’s National Treasury and CBK released a Draft National Payment System Policy and Bill 2026 for consultation, proposing a major restructure of payments regulation with new licensing categories for PSPs and PSOs. El Niño Emergency Messaging: The Communications Authority ordered Safaricom, Airtel, Telkom Kenya and Jamii to send government emergency SMS alerts to all active subscribers, even those on DND, ahead of a national Early Warning System simulation. Youth Skills Push: National Youth Service plans to scale recruitment to 100,000 annually by 2028, backed by Sh6.4bn for expanded training infrastructure. Food Security Capacity: International training in Mexico strengthened maize and wheat disease surveillance and management, with Kenyan specialists among participants. Mining Safety Alert: West Pokot reported a gold mine collapse killing five and injuring four, renewing scrutiny of artisanal underground mining risks.